For the past two months the situation in Manipur was petrifying. Such situation has become the norm of life in many parts of the North East India. Nobody knows what to
expect. Life has become so hard and we begin to ask one another: “when was the last time you know about peace in Manipur?” In the streets, people walk in silence, tolerating anger and frustration. Farther from towns and villages, in remote mountain interiors we see thousands of people, semi-starving: yet voiceless. Perhaps, it is for the injured innocents and the voiceless people with whom I can empathise emboldened me to share my feelings. Because I feel the smouldering anger and hunger of these people is sustained only by hope and longing for return of peace. I believe India’s quest for dominance of the disparate frontier people has rendered many ethnic communities uprooted in their own soil in North East India. The fault line in Indian governance is also testified by the proliferation of the increasingly restive Maoist, even in the heartland of India. Unmindful of these, the Indian Decision-Makers appears to be chalking out a concerted strategy to use the North East region as a pivot in engaging with the economically vibrant East Asia and in preparation to reap the spoils of the Asian century. Whether Indian strategist has any role in the intensifications of ethnic conflicts within the disparate communities in North East India is anybody’s guess.
India Shining?
It is natural for an individual living within a nation-state system to wish for a powerful, successful and self-sufficient country. Indeed, I join in chorus with my fellow Indians in celebration of the successful missile tests at Sriharikota, in despair when it failed and in exclamation when Pokhran tests were successful and when India became a nuclear country. I also wish that India should continue to have its edge in computer software and become a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council and economically the most prosperous country in the world. But to make India shining, let us not forget what we may have to sacrifice as an individual and as a community.
The prerequisites for India’s ultimate aim of securing a place in the world mean fast economic growth and nuclear capability. However in order to maintain economic growth India needs to sort out two vital issues: regional peace and steady energy supply. This constrained India to change its foreign policy orientations towards its neighbours as India’s age-old priority of swadeshi or “self-sufficiency” and Non-Alignment is no longer feasible.
Instances of India reorienting its foreign policy began with the ‘Look East Policy’ in the beginning of 1990s. Furthermore, following the ‘Eastern Strategy’ regime of the Bharatiya Janata Party during 1999 and 2004, another impetus to India’s good neighbourliness began, a trend upheld by the Congress-led government when it resumed power in 2004. Consequently, search for new sources of energy was visibly a priority for New Delhi in order to sustain economic growth and to realise the vision of a global role, commensurate with India’s size, rich cultural, historical heritage and population envisioned by Nehru sixty years ago.
Energy requirements for India
India produces only half the natural gas it uses and it imports 70 per cent of its crude oil (ISN Security Watch, 10 February 2005). To sustain an economic growth (estimated between7 per cent and 8 per cent per annum, with the aim of increasing it to 10 per cent per annum) she has to secure energy resources quickly.
The energy needs are also linked to India’s population explosion. India’s growing population is expected to reach 1,180 million by 2010, 1,362 million by 2020 and 1,573 million by 2030 ó that is more than 50 per cent increase in less than 30 years. The non-power use needs for natural gas are estimated at 25, 36 and 51 billion cubic metres in those years (given above) respectively, and expected to double by 2010 and 2020.
India’s needs for fuel for power will rise even faster. India has shown preference for coal but coal reserves are not adequate to support the power demands. Currently only 13 per cent of power generation is on the basis of gas, the rest being supplied through coal. India’s gas requirements for electricity production is estimated at anywhere between 61 billion cubic metres (BCM) and 199 BCM by the year 2030, de- pending on the amount of coal being used and on the basis that 2,364 billion kilowatt hour (BkWh) of thermal electricity is needed to be produced.
Steps for energy procurement:
India has only two options viz., West through Iran and East through Myanmar. In January 2005 India signed a US$40 billion deal to import natural gas from Iran. The 25-year deal enables India to import 7.5 million tones of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Iran starting in 2009. Again another agreement was signed in June 2005 for the $4.5 billion pipeline project. The meeting in Islamabad during May 22-24, 2006 saw the trilateral meeting at second secretary level (Financial Express, 16 May 2006). However, even with two pipelines planned on its western border, India is pursuing development of another pipeline in the east as India cannot fully depend on one sole provider, especially when the pipeline is planned to go through what is still considered “enemy” territory. On the Eastern border, following trip of the then Indian External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh to Myanmar in 2001, India started negotiations to purchase gas from Myanmar. Again, when then President of India Abdul Kalam visited Yangon in March 2006, India signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Myanmar to supply gas to India (BBC News, ‘India Signs Burma Gas Agreement’, 9 March 2006).
